Chart of the week #16: Who supports CCM and Chadema, by level of education

A few weeks ago I looked at levels of support for CCM and Chadema by age – roughly speaking, Chadema’s support was found to be stronger among younger people than older folks.

Now, using the same data source (Afrobarometer data from 2012), how does support for these two parties vary among people with different levels of education?

Source: Afrobarometer 2012

Source: Afrobarometer 2012

This first chart shows how support for CCM is strongest among those with no formal education, and drops successively with each extra level of education reached. In contrast, support for Chadema rises with each level of education.

For those with no formal education, primary education, or some secondary education (the red, orange, yellow and green bars), support for CCM is much stronger than for Chadema. For those who have completed secondary schooling but no further, support for the two parties is roughly equally split. Among those with some form of post-secondary education, Chadema is ahead.

Overall, the chart above makes it look like Chadema’s support is not far behind CCM. But that’s slightly misleading, because the categories of education level are far from equal – far more people have completed primary education (58%) than secondary education (8%).

So I’ve done a second chart showing the same data in a slightly different way. This time, the width of the bars shows how many people have achieved each education level – a wider bar means more people. The height still shows how popular the party is among that group.

Source: Afrobarometer 2012

Source: Afrobarometer 2012

In conclusion, it doesn’t matter how many secondary school leavers and university graduates support Chadema, they can’t hope to win without finding a way of increasing their popularity among those who didn’t go on to secondary school.

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Update: an interesting Twitter exchange was prompted by this post:

5 thoughts on “Chart of the week #16: Who supports CCM and Chadema, by level of education

  1. Fred

    Excellent graphic, with the addition of the population size! It would be really interesting to see these on a regional basis, too, or even urban vs. rural.

    1. mtega Post author

      Hi Fred. Thanks for your comment.

      I will certainly look at the urban/rural question in the coming weeks, and possibly even regional as well (though I’m not sure whether there’s enough detail in the data for that).

  2. irenei

    Very clear illustration Ben, although the carpet may have already shifted under Chadema’s feet between 2012 and now

  3. Aidan

    Superb chart and even better explanation of what it shows. It illustrates correlation between levels of education and party support at one moment in time. So I don’t think it can give Rakesh, who asks an excellent question, any hint of an answer. Expanding secondary and university education could also expand CCM support from grateful graduates if they feel they have benefited and choose to associate their access and success to CCM policies. Others might be disappointed and blame CCM for it. It’s ambiguous at best. Keep up the excellent work Ben.

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