And then there were three: Migiro, Ali, Magufuli

Update 12/7/15 00.30am (Tz) – After the three candidates made short speeches to the CCM National Congress and votes were cast, the meeting has been called off for the night. It will continue from 10am local time tomorrow (Sunday), at which point the results of the vote will be announced.


CCM has just announced the final three candidates for the party’s presidential nomination: John Magufuli, Amina Salum Ali and Asha-Rose Migiro:

      The number of votes cast for each of the final five candidates is

reported

    to be as follows:
  1. Magufuli 290
  2. Amina 284
  3. Migiro 280
  4. Makamba 124
  5. Membe 120

This is not an outcome that many had predicted. Membe was among the favourites, and Makamba was said to have strong support within the party’s decision making bodies.

The cynics are suggesting that Lowassa has used his influence in NEC to ensure that the two strongest candidates are eliminated, making it easier for him to come through as an opposition candidate. Given that Lowassa clearly has considerable support among NEC membership, they may well be right.

If so, it is a strategy that could backfire. With the full backing of Tanzania’s most well established and experienced party in CCM, Magufuli, Amina and Migiro are all candidates who could do well.

Equally, Lowassa may not find it easy to find an opposition party who will have him. The Ukawa coalition are selecting their candidate at this very moment, and it is unlikely that Lowassa would be able to satisfy ACT-Wazalendo’s requirement for party leaders to be transparent about their income and assets. Nevertheless, that still leaves around a large number of previously minor parties he could adopt as his own between now and the election.

Leaving Lowassa aside, there’s a gender component to celebrate here: Tanzania’s leading political party has chosen two strong and capable women among the final three candidates for the party’s presidential nomination. Tanzania has never before been this close to having a female president.

The next step is for the 2,455-member CCM National Congress to vote to select one of Magufuli, Migiro and Ali to be the party’s presidential candidate. This meeting is expected to begin any moment now, and to conclude tonight. It will be broadcast live on TV within Tanzania and online. But as the last few days have shown, the timetable could very easily change.

Finally, here’s the latest CCM graphic:

ccm final three

2 thoughts on “And then there were three: Migiro, Ali, Magufuli

  1. Pingback: Updates on 11/7/15 – big things going on in Dodoma | mtega

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