Where will the election be close? Mwananchi’s analysis, mapped

Mwananchi 26/9/15, via millardayo.com

Mwananchi 26/9/15, via millardayo.com

Mwananchi newspaper has published an excellent analysis of the “34 constituencies” where the competition is close for the upcoming elections in Tanzania. In fact, they only listed 32, but the analysis, which is mostly written by on-the-ground journalists in those areas, is well worth reading.

In particular, it highlights how in many constituencies, local issues, local politicians and local dynamics are what will decide the election results, as much as national politics.

I have uploaded it all into the map below. By clicking one of the constituencies marked in red, an English translation of Mwananchi’s analysis is displayed.

As you can see, most of these constituencies are in the north or west of the country. I think it would be wrong to conclude from this, however, that these are the only areas where the election will be closely and/or hotly fought. Ukawa will be competitive in a lot more seats this time around than in 2010, and across a wider part of the country.

But I certainly agree with Mwananchi that local political dynamics will play at least as big a role in deciding the outcome in individual constituencies as anything that happens nationally.

One thought on “Where will the election be close? Mwananchi’s analysis, mapped

  1. Eli

    Good analysis. While it is thoughtful of anyone to think that elections in Africa are decided by issues and what actual ballots say, it is equally true that these elections are often just a formality. Many agrees that African elections are stolen (during registration, voting, and counting). But as Charles Onyango Obbo tried to argue, maybe that is not the point. “It might well be that after years of losing through rigging, and the failure of electoral reform, Africa’s opposition parties are learning from the rulers and diversifying their electoral strategies to include cheating. And that is worrying ruling parties not because it will cost them elections, they can always announce victory for the president whatever the actual ballot says, but because it suggests election theft has had unintended frightening consequences for them – they forced the opposition to get very sophisticated in counter-subversion.” [ http://www.monitor.co.ug/OpEd/OpEdColumnists/CharlesOnyangoObbo/disturbing-years-election-theft-/-/878504/2671954/-/jj4rebz/-/index.html ]. Another good read on the same by Obbo:
    http://mgafrica.com/article/2014-05-15-how-stolen-african-elections-prevent-violence-undermine-big-men-and-promote-democracy

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