Mwananchi newspaper has published an excellent analysis of the “34 constituencies” where the competition is close for the upcoming elections in Tanzania. In fact, they only listed 32, but the analysis, which is mostly written by on-the-ground journalists in those areas, is well worth reading.
In particular, it highlights how in many constituencies, local issues, local politicians and local dynamics are what will decide the election results, as much as national politics.
I have uploaded it all into the map below. By clicking one of the constituencies marked in red, an English translation of Mwananchi’s analysis is displayed.
As you can see, most of these constituencies are in the north or west of the country. I think it would be wrong to conclude from this, however, that these are the only areas where the election will be closely and/or hotly fought. Ukawa will be competitive in a lot more seats this time around than in 2010, and across a wider part of the country.
But I certainly agree with Mwananchi that local political dynamics will play at least as big a role in deciding the outcome in individual constituencies as anything that happens nationally.