The trend is clear:
- Chadema’s support is much stronger among younger Tanzanians (33%) than older Tanzanians (14%)
- CCM’s support goes the other way: much stronger among over 50s (71%) than under 30s (47%)
The trend is clear:
Two fascinating articles attracted my attention this week, both on aspects of Tanzanian politics that don’t get as much attention as perhaps they should. I encourage you to read both original posts in full, but I have pasted some highlights here.
First, from Aikande Kwayu, Politics of Image, or can we call it the Image Strategy? #CCM vs #Opposition:
“CCM’s party secretariat has been on a “subtle” country tour meeting citizens, carrying out rallies, and engaging with them. The party General Secretary, Mr. A. Kinana has been busy out of office in the field talking to people on various issues. As I said, I don’t read much of what they tell people but I do look at the pictures. I must admit, I admire the pictures because I’ve seen him and other party secretariat staff taking the central rail train, building with people, farming with people using hoes, etc. Today, I peeped in Michuzi Blog and found pictures of them eating ugali on plastic plates and on benches with wananchi…
“Now, let’s turn to our new “coalition of hope” (bringing several (major) opposition parties together) –UKAWA! So on Wednesday UKAWA had a rally in Moshi town. The main speaker was Dr. W. Slaa. What struck me again was not the message, but the flamboyance of the helicopter, the cars surrounding and all that “big man” image displayed to perhaps “attracting” the mass to attend the rally or was it to make them “happy”…i.e. “partying mood”? Well, the next day while driving down from Machame to Moshi town with my brother, we met the convoy of UKAWA going to Arusha…the protocol was perfectly observed! There are no traffic jams in Moshi-Arusha roads but the convey was moving slowly…with not less than 3 “kilimo kwanza” V8 and one double cabin new modern Toyota decorated with flags of the parties.”
We all saw it coming, and yet we were surprised when it came. Zitto Kabwe was sacked by his party late last week.
No longer will Zitto be Chadema’s deputy secretary, nor deputy leader of the opposition in parliament. There’s even a suggestion that he will be stripped of his party membership, with uncertain consequences for his status as an MP – Tanzania doesn’t allow independent MPs, and “crossing the floor” to join another party mid-term is unheard of.
I will come to the implications in a moment. But first, some background is essential.
Zitto has long been a difficult character, both for the government and his own party leaders. He is quite possibly the most popular political figure in the country (though no data exists to confirm this) and has been a huge asset to his party. At only 37 years old, he has an appeal to the youth vote that no other politician can match. But there have always been suspicions that his energy and drive owed more to his personal ambition (he had already indicated his intention to run for the presidency in 2015) than his party allegiance. Continue reading
Updated Tuesday, 2pm EAT – click here to jump to the new section
Monday 25th November
Front pages, via millardayo.com:
Mwananchi: Zitto: Sitoki Chadema; Diwani amkosoa Lissu; Wazazi wamsindikiza Zitto ‘kujieleza’; Dk Kitila: Nilishiriki kuandaa, kuhariri waraka; Kigoma wapinga, Mbeya washangilia
The Citizen: Zitto fights back in effort to salvage political career Continue reading
For articles etc. from Monday (25/11) onwards, see this new post.
– – –
Zitto Kabwe, a hugely dynamic and popular young MP with the main Tanzanian opposition party, Chadema, was stripped of his official positions by party leaders in the early hours of Friday morning. He will no longer be the party’s deputy secretary, nor deputy leader of the opposition in parliament.
The reason? Party Chairman, Freeman Mbowe, explained that Zitto had been discovered to be part of a plot to overthrow the party leader and take over the position of party chair (and likely Presidential candidate), along with other related transgressions.
I will probably post some analysis of this major development as the story evolves further. But for the moment, here’s a collection of articles, posts, tweets, etc. on the story, which I will try to keep updated.
Friday 22nd November
The story as it broke, on Jamii Forums: Zitto na Kitila wavuliwa vyeo vyote ndani ya chama
Live coverage of the press conference held by Chadema’s Executive Committee, also on Jamii Forums: Ufafanuzi wa CHADEMA Kuhusu Maazimio ya Kamati Kuu – Novemba 2013
Several times recently on this blog (e.g. here) I have referred to Tanzania’s increasingly competitive, and hot, political environment. But I have had to use anecdotes and newspaper articles as evidence that Chadema is challenging CCM as never before. Does the data back this up? Let’s take another look at the Afrobarometer survey series to find out.
Chart 1 – Political party preferences in Tanzania since 2001
The five Afrobarometer public opinion surveys in Tanzania since 2001 have all included a question on political party preferences. In 2001 and 2003, the survey asked respondents which party they felt most connected to. In 2005, 2008 and 2012, they were asked which party’s presidential candidate they would vote for if an election was held the following day. This is a standard opinion poll question that is used all around the world.